783 
 WTNT44 KNHC 292037
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016
 
 After the low-level center became nearly exposed this morning, deep
 convection has redeveloped over the center.  The overall cloud
 pattern of Matthew has become better organized during the day, with
 some banding features over the eastern and northern portions of the
 circulation.  Thanks to some timely observations from the Air Force
 Hurricane Hunters, Matthew was upgraded to a hurricane at 18Z.  This
 was based on several believable SFMR-observed surface wind
 measurements from the aircraft.  Matthew is forecast to remain in an
 environment of 15 to 20 kt of shear into Friday, with some
 relaxation of the shear expected by late Friday.  The official
 intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and is
 a little above the model consensus but close to the latest HWRF
 model prediction.
 
 Matthew has not slowed down yet, with the initial motion remaining
 westward at 15 kt.  A mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the
 hurricane should maintain a westward to slightly south of westward
 motion for the next 48 hours or so.  Then, Matthew is likely to
 turn to the right as it nears the western periphery of the ridge,
 and head generally northward to the southwest and west of the high
 and east of a trough over the Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast
 period.  One should not focus on the details of the track at 72 to
 120 hours due to the inherent forecast uncertainties.  It should be
 noted that the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently doing a synoptic
 surveillance mission to provide data in the environment of Matthew
 for initializing the numerical models.  It is hoped that these
 additional data will improve the accuracy of tonight's model
 runs.
 
 The unusually far south track of Matthew has necessitated the
 issuance of a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of
 Colombia.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/2100Z 14.1N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  30/0600Z 14.0N  69.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  30/1800Z 13.8N  71.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 13.7N  72.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 13.7N  73.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 15.7N  75.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  03/1800Z 18.6N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  04/1800Z 22.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch/Brown