114 
 WTNT45 KNHC 272038
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009
 500 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009
  
 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
 THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DANNY HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...
 WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE PREVIOUSLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. 
 ASIDE FROM THAT...THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED.  THE MAIN
 CONVECTION IS IN A LINE 130-170 N MI EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE
 CENTER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 100 N MI OR MORE FROM THE
 CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AS WELL
 AS DATA FROM THE QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETERS...SUGGEST THAT
 THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40-45 KT.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KT.
 
 THE CENTER HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD SINCE SUNRISE...WITH THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 270/2.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
 REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT DANNY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD OVER
 THE NEXT 24-36 HR IN ADVANCE OF A COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING
 INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD
 ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES...PASSING NEAR OR OVER
 CAPE HATTERAS...SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE CANADIAN
 MARITIMES ON ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  WITH THE MORE
 WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
 SOMEWHAT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST
 TRACK IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD AS WELL.  WHILE THE TRACK IS STILL DOWN
 THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...
 AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALL TO THE LEFT OF THE NEW TRACK.  SOME
 ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LEFT...TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF
 THE U. S....MAY BE REQUIRED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
  
 DANNY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED
 WITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY.  IN ADDITION...BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SSM/IS TOTAL
 PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR DANNY
 IS DRY.  THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT LACK OF
 ORGANIZATION...SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW AT BEST
 DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DANNY
 TO STRENGTHEN FROM 24-36 HR AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDER AN
 UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  AFTER THAT...IT WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...WHICH
 SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE NEW
 INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO NOT REACH HURRICANE
 STRENGTH...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT IN 48 HR.  IT SHOULD BE
 NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF STILL FORECAST DANNY TO BECOME A
 HURRICANE BY 36 HR.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/2100Z 27.5N  73.5W    45 KT
  12HR VT     28/0600Z 28.5N  74.7W    45 KT
  24HR VT     28/1800Z 30.7N  75.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     29/0600Z 34.4N  74.1W    55 KT
  48HR VT     29/1800Z 38.8N  71.6W    60 KT
  72HR VT     30/1800Z 46.5N  61.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     31/1800Z 50.0N  49.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     01/1800Z 51.0N  32.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN