419 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 031444
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014
 
 Norbert has become significantly better organized this morning.
 The central dense overcast has become more symmetric with more
 prominent banding around the center.  Microwave images also show
 that the inner core is becoming better defined, with the likely
 first stages of a primitive eye.  The initial wind speed is set to
 55 kt, at the top end of the subjective Dvorak estimates, although
 the latest objective numbers are higher.  With the improvement in
 the inner core, light-to-moderate shear, and very warm waters,
 future strengthening seems quite likely.  In fact, rapid
 intensification is a distinct possibility, with the SHIPS-RI
 showing about a 1-in-3 chance of Norbert becoming 30 kt stronger in
 the next 24 hours.  Considering the environmental factors and the
 low bias of the deterministic guidance so far, the new NHC intensity
 forecast is raised considerably from the previous one, about 5 kt
 above the highest guidance through 48 hours.  After that time,
 cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to weaken
 the cyclone.  The NHC forecast is blended with the previous
 forecast and the intensity consensus at long range.
 
 With recent microwave and visible imagery, it appears that Norbert
 has been moving westward over the past few hours.  However, a more
 representative long-term motion is 295/8.  Mid-level ridging is
 expected to weaken later today over northwestern Mexico, which
 should cause Norbert to turn more to the northwest.  While all of
 the reliable guidance keeps the center of the storm offshore of Baja
 California Sur, Norbert should come close enough to bring tropical-
 storm-force winds to the state.  The models have shifted somewhat
 southward since the last cycle, and with the recent westward motion,
 it makes sense to adjust the NHC forecast a little farther south for
 the first day or so.  There hasn't been much change to the guidance
 beyond day 3, so the new forecast is basically an update to the
 previous one.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 19.6N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 20.1N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 20.9N 110.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 22.6N 111.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 27.0N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake