509 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 310236
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST...WITH A
 LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
 ESTIMATED CENTER OF KRISTY. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 FROM SAB
 AND AFWA...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
 INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS FROM
 1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYEWALL WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP...
 HOWEVER THERE ARE NO RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL
 SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
 GUIDANCE...AS THE THE GFDL MODEL IS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM
 INITIALLY.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE
 BEYOND 36 HOURS KRISTY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
 THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME. 
 ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN INTRODUCES
 ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AT LATER PERIODS.  INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL
 SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KRISTY AFTER 48
 HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO IMPINGING OUTFLOW FROM JOHN.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS THERE
 IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS. THE
 NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB KRISTY INTO JOHN'S CIRCULATION IN
 2 OR 3 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE CYCLONES
 SEPARATE THROUGH DAY 3. THE GFS AND UKMET INITIALLY TRACK KRISTY
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
 NORTHERN MEXICO AND LATER TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND
 SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...AND IS
 SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
 MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE FORECAST SLOWS
 THE CYCLONE TO INDICATE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THOSE TIMES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/0300Z 17.2N 115.7W    60 KT
  12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W    65 KT
  24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W    70 KT
  36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N 119.0W    70 KT
  48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 120.4W    65 KT
  72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N 123.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     05/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN