646 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 170835
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
 
 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS THAT
 THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A
 WELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE
 CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF
 THE TWO SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE STRONG SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED
 APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. THEREFORE..THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
 MODEL.  AS A NOTE...THE HWRF MODEL BRINGS FAUSTO TO 116 KNOTS BY 84
 HOURS...AND THIS IS A BIG INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH
 BASICALLY WEAKENED THE CYCLONE.    
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE
 IS 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. FAUSTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A
 STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY.
 HOWEVER...FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
 DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
 ERODED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THIS IS THE PATTERN PROVIDED BY
 MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY IN
 THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ONLY THE ECMWF IS OUTSIDE AND
 WELL-NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0900Z 11.4N 103.4W    50 KT
  12HR VT     17/1800Z 11.8N 105.7W    60 KT
  24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.5N 108.0W    70 KT
  36HR VT     18/1800Z 13.0N 109.5W    75 KT
  48HR VT     19/0600Z 13.5N 111.0W    75 KT
  72HR VT     20/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W    75 KT
  96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N 118.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W    60 KT
  
 $$
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