132 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 102044
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014
 
 Although inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased at times
 since the previous advisory, it has been unable to persist as a
 central dense overcast feature due to entrainment of dry mid-level
 air. The result is that Cristina looks much better in visible
 imagery than it does in IR data, and this is mainly due to the cloud
 pattern being comprised of mostly dissipating cirrus clouds. Having
 said that, microwave and conventional satellite imagery have been
 hinting at the formation of a 30 nmi diameter eye-like feature
 during the past several hours, but the cyclone has thus far been
 unable to sustain that development trend owing to the aforementioned
 dry air intrusions. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on a
 blend of satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB
 and UW-CIMSS ADT.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains 270/04 kt. Cristina is expected
 to continue moving generally westward and accompanied by a gradual
 increase in forward speed as the cyclone comes under increasing
 influence from a strengthening subtropical ridge that extends
 westward from northern Mexico to west of Baja California. By 48
 hours, Cristina is forecast to turn west-northwestward around the
 southwestern periphery of the ridge, and that motion is expected to
 continue through Day 5. The NHC track forecast is just an update of
 the previous advisory track, and lies south and west of the
 consensus model TVCE due to the GFDL model having a sharp
 right-of-track bias from the outset of the forecast.
 
 Upper-level shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt during
 the next 72 hours while Cristina remains over SSTs warmer than 28C.
 This should allow the cyclone to at least gradually strengthen for
 the next 24 hours or so despite the occasional dry air intrusions
 that will disrupt the inner core convection and the intensification
 process. However, if Cristina can somehow manage to close off an
 eye despite the relatively dry mid-level environment, then rapid
 strengthening during the next 24 hours or so would likely occur in
 such a low vertical wind shear regime. By 96 hours and beyond, the
 combination of much cooler sea-surface temperatures, drier and more
 stable air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear should produce
 gradual to possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is
 similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity
 models IVCN and ICON.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/2100Z 15.5N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 15.8N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 16.7N 108.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  14/1800Z 19.2N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  15/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart