452 
 WTPA41 PHFO 212050
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015
  
 THE INITIAL VISIBLE SECTOR IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED AN EXPOSED LOW
 LEVEL CENTER EAST OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
 INDICATES KILO IS STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR
 AND IS HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING FULLY ORGANIZED. INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 45 KT FROM PHFO...HELD
 HIGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM
 JTWC. THE CIRA/RAMMB MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS
 INDICATED 35 KT IN KILO/S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
 THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS HELD AT 35
 KT.
  
 THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...ABOVE 29C IN
 THE LATEST ANALYSIS...AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM
 RAMMB-CIRA INDICATES INCREASING VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
 EASTERLY SHEAR...JUST UNDER 10 KT IN THE 1800 UTC CIMSS
 ESTIMATE...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY...AND THEN
 REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH DAY 3. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE
 STORM WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
 MODELS AGREE. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
  
 KILO IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING AT 285/14 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-
 AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO
 BUILD WESTWARD...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48
 HOURS. THE MODELS ALSO PROJECT THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL
 DEVELOP AT ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN A
 REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR
 NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOW A SHARPER TURN
 TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF IS A NOTABLE
 OUTLIER AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE WEAKER AND MOVES IT MUCH FARTHER WEST
 BEFORE SLOWING DOWN FAR SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGED
 WESTWARD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND HWRF. THE FORECAST IS
 SLOWER THAN BEFORE AFTER DAY 3 WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OBJECTIVE
 AIDS BUT TAKES A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE WEAKER AND
 MORE WESTWARD ECMWF SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
 GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF KILO...BUT THE NOD FOR NOW IS
 CONSERVATIVELY BEING GIVEN TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS. GIVEN THIS FORECAST TRACK...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
  
 THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WC-130J WILL BEGIN FLIGHTS INTO KILO
 THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS
 UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...PROVIDING CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO KILO/S
 STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED
 IN THE ATLANTIC...THE WC-130J IS ALSO SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC
 SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE
 STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF KILO.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/2100Z 13.0N 153.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 13.7N 155.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 14.5N 158.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  23/0600Z 15.5N 161.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  23/1800Z 16.3N 163.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  24/1800Z 18.0N 163.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  25/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  26/1800Z 21.0N 161.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA