928 
 WTNT45 KNHC 260839
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011
 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
  
 RECENT IR IMAGERY AND AN 0350 UTC AMSR-E PASS SUGGEST THAT THE
 DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
 SOMEWHAT ELONGATED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS
 TO BE DUE TO CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS
 ANALYZED BY UW-CIMMS AND THE GFS FIELDS IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.
 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT
 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
 AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL
 AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND SHOWS ONLY A BROAD PEAK AT
 MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...INCREASING
 SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WITH THE
 CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. IS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT VISIBLE
 IMAGERY WILL REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED...AND
 IF SO THE CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
  
 SINCE A CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
 POSITION REMAINS HIGH. BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/8. WHILE OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC
 REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...A TREND TOWARD A WEAKER CYCLONE
 SUGGESTS THAT LESS OF A POLEWARD TURN INTO THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS
 WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 2 OR 3 DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
 FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
 TOWARD THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE
 SHALLOW BAM AT DAY 4.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0900Z 14.5N  33.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  26/1800Z 15.1N  34.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  27/0600Z 15.9N  35.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  27/1800Z 16.8N  36.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  28/0600Z 17.8N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  29/0600Z 19.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  30/0600Z 21.0N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN