358 
 WTNT41 KNHC 012023
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 4 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004
 
 OTTO IS HANGING ON AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW.  DEEP
 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MEAGER AND IS CONFINED TO THE
 EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  BECAUSE THE STORM IS NEAR THE
 AXIS OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
 SYSTEM IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
 INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL
 OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WOULD BRING
 ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  SO...EVEN
 THOUGH OTTO IS MOVING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...IT IS
 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
 
 INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...145/5.  GLOBAL MODEL
 GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR OTTO...TO
 THE EAST OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL
 SUITE.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/2100Z 30.7N  49.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     02/0600Z 30.0N  49.4W    35 KT
  24HR VT     02/1800Z 29.2N  48.7W    30 KT
  36HR VT     03/0600Z 28.3N  48.0W    30 KT
  48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.4N  47.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  45.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     05/1800Z 25.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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