633 
 WTNT45 KNHC 041444
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
 1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
  
 ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE DEEP
 CONVECTION ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DESPITE THE
 HOSTILE CONDITIONS...OSCAR HAS STRENGTHENED...AND A 1300 UTC ASCAT
 PASS INDICATED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 40 KT.  THE
 SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
 WINDS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  STRONG SHEAR IS
 FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING OSCAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO...SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR OSCAR TO
 DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS WHEN IT GETS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT...
 MATCHING THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
  
 OSCAR HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 020/8 KT.  THE STORM IS APPROACHING STRONGER MID-LATITUDE
 WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS
 THE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
 ATLANTIC.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
 STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR
 ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
 ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50
 LFPW.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/1500Z 20.6N  41.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 21.8N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 23.8N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG