272 
 WTNT43 KNHC 302010
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
  
 THE CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF SOME NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE 
 CONVECTION.  BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL ALLOW FOR A 45
 KT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
 HERMINE MOVES OVER COLD WATER.  BUOY 44004 IS ONLY ABOUT 40 N MI
 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  IF THE BUOY DOES NOT OBSERVE TROPICAL
 STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN HERMINE IS LIKELY
 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/18.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES
 AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS
 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER WHICH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
 TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/2100Z 38.4N  71.3W    45 KT
  12HR VT     31/0600Z 41.0N  70.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     31/1800Z 46.0N  65.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     01/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH
  
  
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