080 
 WTNT41 KNHC 280244
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005
  
 BETA IS DEFINITELY NOT INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TONIGHT.  THE CLOUD
 PATTERN IS ONLY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS
 ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SSM/I MICROWAVE DATA AT 2344Z CONTINUES
 TO SHOW A HINT OF AN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 INCREASED MODESTLY TO 55 KNOTS. BETA IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM
 AND BASED ON SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN ANDRES
 PROVIDED BY THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE...THE TROPICAL STORM
 FORCE WIND RADII HAS BEEN REDUCED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
 SURFACE WINDS AT SAN ANDRES NEAR 00Z WERE ONLY 11 KNOTS...AND THE
 CENTER OF BETA IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 N MI FROM THAT LOCATION.
 THESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVER ON THE ISLAND.
 HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BETA TO
 INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THE
 RELIABLE GFDL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS AT LANDFALL AND SHIPS
 TO 90 KNOTS. 
 
 BETA HAS CONTINUED CREEPING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. DESPITE THE
 CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT THAT
 BETA WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN OR OVER CENTRAL
 AMERICA BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
 MEXICO AND FLORIDA.  THIS HIGH HAS BEEN A VERY PERSISTENT FEATURE
 AND HAS STEERED OTHER CYCLONES TOWARD FLORIDA THIS YEAR...BUT IN
 THIS CASE IT WILL STEER THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.
 HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL NOT SAVE NICARAGUA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF
 CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE CYCLONE. THE HIGH SHOULD FORCE BETA
 WESTWARD TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN EAST COAST AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
 IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
 THE GFDL. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD
 TOWARD CUBA AND THE UK TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOST LIKELY THESE
 TWO MODELS WILL CHANGE THEIR TUNE IN THE NEXT RUN. WE SHALL SEE. 
 
 IF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST VERIFY...BETA WILL LIKELY
 BE A VERY SERIOUS HURRICANE PRIMARILY FOR NICARAGUA PRODUCING 
 CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE FROM BOTH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/0300Z 12.1N  81.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N  81.6W    65 KT
  24HR VT     29/0000Z 13.0N  81.8W    75 KT
  36HR VT     29/1200Z 13.5N  82.5W    85 KT
  48HR VT     30/0000Z 13.5N  83.5W    95 KT
  72HR VT     31/0000Z 13.5N  85.0W    40 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     01/0000Z 13.5N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     02/0000Z 13.5N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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