035 
 WTNT41 KNHC 142036
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016
 500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016
 
 Alex has been maintaining a fairly impressive appearance on
 satellite imagery, with a well-defined 15-20 n mi diameter eye
 embedded within cold cloud tops.  Recent images do suggest some
 warming/erosion of the tops over the southwest quadrant.  Dvorak
 T-numbers remain near 4.5 so the current intensity is held at 75
 kt.  Sea surface temperatures are now below 20 deg C and should
 continue to cool along the path of Alex.  This, along with a little
 increase in southwesterly shear, should result in gradual
 weakening.  However, Alex is expected to maintain hurricane strength
 while passing near or over the Azores.  In 24 hours or so, the
 global models show a distinct warm front over the northeast portion
 of the circulation.  This suggests extratropical transition, and the
 official forecast reflects this.  Later in the forecast period, the
 global models show the system merging with another extratropical
 cyclone over the northern Atlantic.
 
 The initial motion is slightly east of due northward or 015/19.
 There is essentially no change to the track forecast reasoning.
 Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave
 mid-tropospheric trough that has been rotating around a broader
 trough to its northwest.  This evolution should cause the cyclone
 to turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over
 the next couple of days.  The dynamical track guidance models are
 in excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and
 the official forecast is near the consensus of these models.  This
 is basically an update of the previous NHC track prediction.
 
 Alex's wind field is likely to expand as it nears and makes the
 extratropical transition.  The wind radii forecasts are based
 primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/2100Z 33.6N  27.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 36.4N  27.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 41.8N  27.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  16/0600Z 49.5N  29.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  16/1800Z 56.5N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  17/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch