252 
 WTNT25 KNHC 020836
 TCMAT5
 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202005
 0900Z SUN OCT 02 2005
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
 YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
 THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
 CAMPECHE.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  87.5W AT 02/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   5 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
 34 KT....... 60NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  87.5W AT 02/0900Z
 AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  87.2W
  
 FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.1N  88.9W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.7N  90.9W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N  92.9W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N  94.5W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N  96.0W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.0N  97.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  87.5W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 $$