626 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 120837
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007
 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007
  
 FOLLOWING AN EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE
 IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND
 DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT.  WHILE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
 HAS PROVIDED LITTLE ASSISTANCE IN DETERMINING THE CENTER
 CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE...A 0322Z TRMM PASS AND A 0130Z QUIKSCAT
 PASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE
 REMAINING CONVECTION.  AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS
 ALSO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...AT BEST.  
 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS LOSING THE LITTLE STEAM IT HAD. 
 SSTS ARE CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 26 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE VICINITY OF
 THE CYCLONE...AND THE CHANCE FOR IT TO INTENSIFY TO A STORM HAS
 ESSENTIALLY DIMINISHED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...IN
 AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WEAKENS THE
 DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER IF THE
 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...THE DISSIPATING PROCESS COULD
 OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
 BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
 BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS CAUSED A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL EAST-
 PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-
 LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE CYCLONE...OR
 WHAT'S LEFT OF IT...IS STEERED TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS OR
 SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF
 MODELS. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/0900Z 17.7N 112.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N 113.7W    25 KT
  24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 115.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.1N 116.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI