299 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 182035
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016
 
 Paine has strengthened significantly today, with increasingly better
 defined convective bands wrapping at least 3/4 of the way around
 the circulation.  The intensity is set, perhaps conservatively, to
 50 kt which is the average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 Vertical shear has relaxed, and the tropical cyclone has about 24
 hours over warm water.  The official intensity forecast now calls
 for Paine to become a hurricane within that time frame, in close
 agreement with the SHIPS guidance.  By tomorrow night, the cyclone
 will be encountering SSTs below 24 deg C, so a weakening trend
 should be underway by that time.  Paine will continue to move over
 progressively cooler waters thereafter, and should decay into a
 remnant low in about 72 hours.
 
 The initial motion estimate, 310/12 kt, is not much different than
 in the earlier advisory.  The track forecast philosophy has not
 changed.  Paine should move along the southwestern periphery of a
 mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered near Texas for the
 next couple of days and remain offshore of the Baja California
 peninsula.  In 72 hours, the remnant low is forecast to approach
 the northern portion of the peninsula, but it should dissipate
 before reaching land.
 
 Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
 expected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States
 in a couple of days.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in
 these areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/2100Z 18.5N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  19/0600Z 19.8N 114.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  19/1800Z 21.9N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  20/0600Z 23.9N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  20/1800Z 25.8N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  21/1800Z 28.9N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch