592 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 152034
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
 
 Satellite images indicate that Lane is strengthening.  The central
 dense overcast continues to grow, with a large banding feature in
 the western semicircle and expanding outflow in most quadrants.
 ASCAT data recently showed maximum winds of about 40 kt, so that
 will be the initial wind speed, which is also near a blend of the
 latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
 While the latest microwave data indicate that the inner core of Lane
 remains loosely organized, the large-scale environment appears to be
 favorable for intensification.  Low shear, warm waters of 27.5-28C,
 and moderate levels of mid-level moisture all support strengthening
 at a higher rate than climatology. However, since the inner core is
 not well established yet, the intensity forecast will be held just
 below rapid strengthening (30 kt in 24 h) for day 1. There is still
 a strong signal for that threshold to be met in the day 2-3 period
 from the DTOPS rapid intensification index, so the forecast will
 remain for a major hurricane to form during that time. This forecast
 is close to a blend of the latest NOAA-HCCA and FSSE corrected
 consensus models.
 
 The storm continues to move just south of due west, now at about 11
 kt.  The synoptic pattern is well established with a subtropical
 ridge expected to only slightly weaken in the medium-range period,
 causing a slight west-northwestward turn in the central Pacific.
 While the overall spread has increased in the 1200 UTC guidance, the
 latest model consensus has barely budged since the previous
 advisory, although it does fit the recent westward trend.  The
 latest official track forecast is again adjusted in that direction,
 close to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/2100Z 10.6N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  16/0600Z 10.5N 126.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  16/1800Z 10.7N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  17/0600Z 11.1N 130.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  17/1800Z 11.6N 133.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  18/1800Z 12.6N 138.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  19/1800Z 14.0N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 120H  20/1800Z 15.2N 148.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake