070 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 302020
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
 ALTHOUGH IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAD WARMED
 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
 ORGANIZED ON TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND A NEW BURST OF
 COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE IS A
 WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING NEARLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE
 SYSTEM CENTER...WITH EVEN A SUGGESTION OF AN INTERMITTENT EYE-LIKE
 FEATURE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELD A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
 KT...WHICH IS USED...MAYBE CONSERVATIVELY...FOR THE ADVISORY WIND
 SPEED.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS INCREASING AND KRISTY SHOULD REMAIN
 OVER FAIRLY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IN GENERAL
 AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.  LATER
 ON...INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
 INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.
 
 THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 305/5.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
 SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
 SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO BROAD-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
 EAST OF KRISTY.  SINCE THIS MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY REALISTIC...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY BENDS THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AT
 HOURS 96-120. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/2100Z 17.0N 115.6W    55 KT
  12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W    60 KT
  24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.2N 117.7W    65 KT
  36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 119.0W    70 KT
  48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W    65 KT
  72HR VT     02/1800Z 20.0N 123.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 125.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     04/1800Z 19.0N 127.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH