295 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 051425
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
  
 THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
 MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
 CONVECTION TO YIELD DATA T-NUMBERS OF 3.0...2.5...AND 2.5 FROM
 TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT
 INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED.
 HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND
 SINCE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  IN
 FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER
 IS BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  IF THIS TREND
 PERSISTS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE
 REVISED DOWNWARD.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11.  THERE IS STILL NO CLEAR
 EVIDENCE THAT KAY'S MOTION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL
 DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 600 N MI TO ITS WEST.  THUS FAR...
 DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE
 VERY WELL.  GIVEN THE LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH WHICH IS FORECAST
 BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF KAY OVER THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT SEEMS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
 DOES NOT SHOW A FAST ENOUGH WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST
 IN CASE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE TURNS OUT TO BE AT LEAST
 PARTIALLY CORRECT.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/1500Z 14.7N 115.8W    40 KT
  12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.8N 117.4W    40 KT
  24HR VT     06/1200Z 14.9N 119.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W    45 KT
  48HR VT     07/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N 129.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     10/1200Z 15.0N 132.0W    50 KT
  
  
 $$