861 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 062034
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010
  
 AFTER A RATHER LONG...PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED...BREAK IN TROPICAL
 STORM ACTIVITY IN THE HEART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
 ESTELLE HAS FORMED.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A CDO-TYPE PATTERN
 FORMING NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CURVED
 BANDS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH AGENCIES ARE 35 KT...AND
 THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
 LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT
 SHEAR...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND RATHER WARM WATERS.  MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE...BUT NONE OF THEM MAKE
 ESTELLE A HURRICANE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD...AND
 REMAINS NEAR OR ABOVE THE GUIDANCE.
  
 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES HELPED SET THE INITIAL MOTION AT
 290/10.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE
 TO RIDGING OVER MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE MODEL
 GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDN MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST
 IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.  MOST OF THE
 GLOBAL MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWING A SHALLOWER SYSTEM THAT
 SLOWS DOWN AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN LARGE-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
 SOUTH OF MEXICO.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE
 OF DAYS BEFORE IT REACHES THE BREAK...A SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS
 ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT
 DIRECTION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...AT THE
 LONGER-RANGES OF THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/2100Z 17.2N 105.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.7N 106.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W    55 KT
  36HR VT     08/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W    55 KT
  48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N 111.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 112.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE