517 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 230236
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019
 
 This evening's visible satellite presentation consists of a rather
 ragged and shapeless cloud pattern with multiple cloud swirls seen
 rotating around the mean surface circulation center.  The Dvorak
 satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain
 unchanged (T2.0/30 kt) as well as the initial intensity.
 
 There are no changes to the forecast intensity philosophy.  Both
 the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS indicate that the northerly shear currently
 impinging on the northeastern portion of the system will persist
 through the forecast period.  This inhibiting wind pattern along
 with cooler oceanic surface temperatures, ahead of the predicted
 track, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low
 in 48 hours with dissipation in 4 days or less.  The only model
 that shows strengthening to tropical storm status is the COAMPS-TC.
 For continuity purposes, I've elected to maintain this slight 12-24
 hour intensification period in the official forecast.
 
 Because of the ill-defined circulation, the initial motion is
 estimated to be a bit uncertain north-northwestward, or 345/7
 kt, within the low- to mid-level steering flow produced by high
 pressure located over the southwestern United States.  The
 depression should continue moving in a general northwestward
 direction toward a break in the ridge to the northwest of the
 cyclone during the next 2 days.  Afterward, as the system begins to
 weaken, a turn toward the west-northwest, within the tradewind flow,
 is anticipated.  The model guidance is tightly clustered with the
 exception being the left outlier UKMET.  The only adjustment in the
 NHC forecast is, again, a shift slightly to the left of the previous
 advisory, but follows both the TVCE and HCCA consensus models
 closely.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0300Z 17.6N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/1200Z 18.5N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  24/0000Z 19.6N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  24/1200Z 20.5N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  25/0000Z 21.2N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/0000Z 22.5N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts