734 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 281437
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
  
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1018Z NOAA-18 AMSU-B MICROWAVE
 OVERPASS REVEAL IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH AND
 EAST PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  BASED ON SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND AN EARLIER 0358Z QUIKSCAT PASS
 THAT DEPICTED A FEW BELIEVABLE 35 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
 QUADRANT...THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM.  FURTHER
 STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS CRISTINA CONTINUES TO
 MOVE WITHIN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND OVER COOLER WATER WITHIN
 THE 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO
 BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN A BREAK IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED OFF OF THE
 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...A MID TO
 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NORTH OF CRISTINA IN
 RESPONSE TO THE LOW FILLING AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...A
 TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH A
 BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/1500Z 14.4N 124.4W    35 KT
  12HR VT     29/0000Z 14.7N 125.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 127.4W    35 KT
  36HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N 129.3W    35 KT
  48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.0N 131.4W    30 KT
  72HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 143.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN