833 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 280231
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008
  
 BORIS' CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST
 SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY COLD...-80 DEG
 C...CLOUD TOPS AND THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT OVER THE
 SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL INITIAL
 INTENSITY.  THERE IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALL
 BUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  SOME MODEST
 STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
 AFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY
 SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER BORIS AS A RESULT OF AN INVERTED
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS
 OUTPUT.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/9.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
 CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD
 TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD FORCE A TURN
 TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL
 TRACK.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/0300Z 13.6N 110.8W    45 KT
  12HR VT     28/1200Z 14.0N 111.9W    50 KT
  24HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N 113.0W    55 KT
  36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N 114.3W    55 KT
  48HR VT     30/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    50 KT
  72HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N 118.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N 125.5W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH