512 
 WTPA41 PHFO 201440
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032013
 500 AM HST TUE AUG 20 2013
  
 THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...CONTINUES TO TRACK 
 WEST NORTHWESTWARD FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY AREA OF 
 DEEP CONVECTION. NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVERNIGHT AND 
 DVORAK ANALYSES FROM CPHC AND SAB YIELD A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 
 KT...WHILE JTWC HAS THREE-C TOO WEAK TO ANALYZE. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT 
 PASS SHORTLY BEFORE 0900 UTC...11 PM HST...SAMPLED THE WIND FIELD 
 RATHER WELL ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLANKS OF THE 
 CIRCULATION...SHOWING A SOLID SWATH OF 30 KT ACROSS THESE AREAS. 
 THEREFORE...RELUCTANTLY...WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR 
 THIS RATHER SMALL SYSTEM AT 30 KT.
  
 DEPRESSION THREE-C IS MOVING TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT...SLIGHTLY 
 FASTER AND A BIT MORE NORTHERLY THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH 
 STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THREE-C 
 IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH PUTS IT WITHIN 
 UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR. SHIPS SHOWS 20 
 TO 25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THREE-C THROUGH DISSIPATION AT 36 
 HOURS. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM PEWA...WEST 
 OF THE DATELINE...MAY ALSO TAKE A TOLL ON DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE 
 CONTINUING DEGRADATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THREE-C DURING THE 
 PAST 6 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS BEEN 
 CHANGED...PROJECTING WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AT AROUND 24 HOURS 
 AND THEN DISSIPATION AT 36 HOURS. THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK A 
 BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY 
 MORE NORTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE 0600Z.
 
 THREE-C IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE AS OF THIS 
 BULLETIN TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL 
 PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE 
 ISSUED BY RSMC TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC 
 ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN 
 GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT 
 TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  20/1500Z 19.5N 179.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  21/0000Z 20.1N 178.3E   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  21/1200Z 20.9N 175.4E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL