564 
 WTPA41 PHFO 080840
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 PM HST THU JAN 07 2016
  
 AFTER A BRIEF DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING
 ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING NEAR THE CORE OF PALI. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 BEEN FAIRLY STEADY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST...WITHIN AN
 AREA THAT IS THE EASTERN END OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL SURFACE TROUGH
 THAT RUNS THROUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM HFO...SAB...AND JTWC ALL CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT...AND THE CURRENT
 INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
 WIND AND SEAS RADII BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER
 DATA.
 
 PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...325 DEGREES...AT 7 KT IN AN
 AREA OF RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS
 EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE
 TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS THE PRODUCT OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL
 WESTERLY WINDS BEING DRIVEN IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND EASTERLY
 WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 20N. THE
 SOMEWHAT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR MOTION
 TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
 A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE
 TROUGH. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH
 ALL EXCEPT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHARP EQUATORWARD TURN BACK INTO THE
 TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY AND IS
 ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH A BIT
 SLOWER IN THE EQUATORWARD TURN ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.
  
 INTENSITY FORECAST WAS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. BEING IN
 THE DEEP TROPICS...OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR
 ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATE
 EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KT...AND A 0315 UTC SSMIS
 PASS HINTED AT SOME WESTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT TO THE CYCLONE.
 CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND...TO SOME
 DEGREE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
 INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS STEADY AND
 CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THROUGH DAY FIVE.
  
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/0900Z  5.9N 171.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  08/1800Z  6.9N 172.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  09/0600Z  7.7N 173.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  09/1800Z  8.0N 174.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  10/0600Z  8.3N 174.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  11/0600Z  8.3N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  12/0600Z  7.9N 175.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  13/0600Z  7.3N 175.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE