635 
 WTNT41 KNHC 011425
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 10 AM EST WED DEC 01 2004
  
 THE SYSTEM IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A
 SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
 THE CIRCULATION.  EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD SLIGHTLY
 WARMER WATERS...WESTERLY SHEAR....ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA...IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND CAUSE
 WEAKENING.  OTTO IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO REMNANT LOW
 STATUS...AND IT MAY DO SO SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST.
 
 THE MOTION IS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...135/3.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
 INDICATES THAT OTTO SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
 STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...AND IS ABOUT IN
 THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUITE.  THIS IS A LITTLE TO
 THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 31.4N  50.2W    40 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 30.8N  49.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  49.0W    30 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 29.2N  48.3W    30 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 28.5N  47.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 27.0N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 25.5N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     06/1200Z 24.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 $$