631 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 181454
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 900 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016
 
 An AMSR2 image from 0859 UTC revealed that the low-level center of
 Paine was displaced somewhat to the east of the earlier estimated
 track, indicative of easterly shear over the system.  Paine has a
 fairly well-defined curved band, with very cold cloud tops, over the
 western semicircle of the circulation.  Dvorak intensity estimates
 from TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt, and this value will be used for
 the advisory intensity.   The dynamical guidance shows a decrease in
 shear over the next 24 hours, so Paine is likely to strengthen into
 Monday.  In around 48 hours, SSTs are expected to drop below 24 deg
 C, and this should cause significant weakening, and remnant low
 status seems likely by 72 hours.  The official intensity forecast is
 similar to the previous one, and near or above the model consensus.
 
 Based on the aforementioned microwave image, the track has been
 shifted eastward somewhat, and the initial motion estimate is 305/11
 kt.  Over the next couple of days, Paine should move around the
 southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over Texas.  The
 official forecast track is to the right of the previous one, mainly
 due to the eastward relocation of the center, but lies generally to
 the left of the model consensus.
 
 Although the cyclone is likely to dissipate before reaching land,
 deep-layer moisture associated with Paine is expected to be advected
 into extreme southeastern California and southwestern Arizona, which
 could enhance the potential for unusual September rains across these
 areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/1500Z 17.5N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  19/0000Z 18.7N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  19/1200Z 20.7N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  20/0000Z 22.9N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  20/1200Z 24.9N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  21/1200Z 28.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch