781 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 151452
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
 
 The latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone continues to
 become better organized with a growing central dense overcast along
 with ample banding features.  Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 40
 kt, and with the increased organization since the last advisory,
 the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.
 
 Further intensification is likely over the next few days as Lane
 encounters a conducive large-scale environment consisting of low
 shear and fairly warm waters.  Rapid strengthening is a distinct
 possibility after the cyclone forms an inner core, which could take
 a day or so given that there is still some drier air in the eastern
 semicircle.  The DTOPS rapid intensification index indicates a high
 probability of significant strengthening over the next 3 days, with
 over a 70 percent chance of a 65-kt increase during that time.
 Given that some of the guidance (FSSE and HMON) are even higher than
 that, this seems like a reasonable forecast and is indicated below.
 The new NHC forecast is raised from the last advisory, and is close
 to a blend of the previous forecast and the corrected-consensus
 guidance.  Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems
 destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector.
 
 The storm continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt.
 The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken
 slightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone
 to the west or west-northwest throughout the period.  There is very
 little spread in the guidance, with the most notable change since
 the last advisory being a small shift to the southwest.  The
 latest official track forecast is adjusted in that direction, and is
 not too far from the latest model consensus.  Given the tightly
 packed guidance, this appears to be a high-confidence forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/1500Z 10.7N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 10.6N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  16/1200Z 10.7N 127.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  17/0000Z 11.0N 130.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  17/1200Z 11.5N 132.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  18/1200Z 12.6N 137.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  19/1200Z 13.9N 142.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 120H  20/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake