044 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 240256
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008
  
 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC INDICATES THAT THE
 CENTER OF JULIO IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT STILL
 NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SUCH A
 CENTER PLACEMENT SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO HINDER
 THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...LATEST DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS
 SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.  WITH JULIO
 EXPECTED TO BE OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT 12-24
 HOURS...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HINGES ON THE VERTICAL
 SHEAR.  UNFORTUNATELY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
 THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH SOME SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
 SHEAR WHILE OTHERS IMPLY SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST ASSUMES THAT JULIO WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF
 SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR ALLOWING SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A
 LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INTERACTION
 WITH LAND RESULTS IN WEAKENING. 
 
 BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES...JULIO IS NOW MOVING 
 TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335/11.  THE SHORT-TERM TRACK
 FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO
 ANTICIPATE WHETHER THE CENTER OF JULIO WILL REMAIN CONNECTED WITH
 THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SHOULD THE CENTER BECOME DETACHED...IT WOULD
 MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE SHALLOW STEERING.  HOWEVER...IF THE
 CENTER REMAINS CONNECTED...IT WOULD TEND TO MOVE MORE NORTH-
 NORTHWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL.  THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
 UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER JULIO WILL TRACK EAST OF...WEST OF...OR
 OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  GIVEN THE GFDL'S RESPECTABLE
 TRACK RECORD IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
 TOWARD THAT MODEL AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE DYNAMICAL
 MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS REASONING COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT INITIAL
 CENTER RELOCATION NECESSITATES AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST ALSO REQUIRES A NORTHWARD
 EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE
 SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
 THE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII ARE BASED ON NEARBY SHIPS DHER AND
 DDFD2
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 20.5N 108.6W    35 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 21.8N 109.2W    45 KT
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 23.2N 109.9W    45 KT
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 24.6N 110.6W    40 KT
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 25.7N 111.3W    35 KT
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 27.5N 112.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 29.5N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
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