762 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 301436
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
 800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015
 
 Guillermo's convective pattern continues to improve, with a solid
 band curving about half way around the center of circulation.
 Dvorak classifications were T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt
 from SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 40 kt.
 This could be somewhat conservative, given that the latest objective
 ADTs are around 45 kt.
 
 The environment ahead of Guillermo looks plenty favorable for
 continued strengthening.  Upper-level outflow is expanding around
 the cyclone, and Guillermo should remain in a light-shear
 environment for at least the next 3-4 days.  In addition, sea
 surface temperatures are about 29 degrees C, and the atmosphere is
 moist and unstable.  Additional strengthening is anticipated during
 the next few days, and there remains a 1 in 3 chance of rapid
 intensification during the next 24 hours.  Given the favorable
 environment, the official intensity forecast is a little above the
 intensity consensus for the entire forecast period.  It should be
 noted that the HWRF model shows a stronger hurricane than is
 indicated in the official forecast, bringing Guillermo to category 2
 strength in about 3 days.  Some weakening should occur by days 4 and
 5, mainly due to increased shear and lower oceanic heat content.
 
 Guillermo is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, to the south
 of the subtropical ridge.  The global models indicate that a mid-
 to upper-level low located about 1000 miles west of southern
 California will deepen and amplify during the next few days, which
 should produce a break in the subtropical ridge.  The track models
 are in good agreement during the first 48 hours, and most of the
 spread beyond that time is due to speed differences.  An overall
 westward shift in the guidance envelope necessitated an adjustment
 to the official track forecast from 48 hours and beyond, and it
 lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/1500Z  9.1N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  31/0000Z  9.9N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  31/1200Z 11.0N 132.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  01/0000Z 12.0N 135.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  01/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  02/1200Z 14.6N 142.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  03/1200Z 16.0N 145.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  04/1200Z 18.0N 148.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg