832 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 220838
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016
 
 The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with
 deep convection near the center and a fairly well-established
 upper-level outflow. However, Dvorak estimates as well as data from
 a recent ASCAT pass indicate that the winds remain at 45 kt.
 
 The cyclone is forecast to move over warm waters and within a
 favorable shear environment. Given these conditions, Frank is
 expected to intensify and become a hurricane over the weekend. The
 NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and is consistent with
 the intensity guidance. The chances of rapid intensification
 provided by the SHIPS model is only 20 percent. By the end of the
 forecast period, Frank should encounter cooler waters and begin to
 weaken.
 
 Satellite fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving toward the
 northwest or 310 degrees at 10 kt. Global models amplify the
 subtropical ridge controlling the motion of Frank, and this
 steering pattern will likely force the cyclone on a general
 west-northwest track with a decrease in forward speed. The track
 model envelope shifted a little southward beyond 2 days, and
 consequently, the NHC forecast was adjusted southward a little bit.
 Although the forecast track keeps Frank well removed from Mexico,
 interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
 should continue to monitor the progress of this cyclone.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/0900Z 16.7N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  22/1800Z 17.5N 107.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  23/0600Z 18.3N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  23/1800Z 19.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  24/0600Z 19.6N 111.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  25/0600Z 20.5N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  26/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  27/0600Z 22.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila