136 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 222037
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019
 
 The depression is struggling to become better organized. Visible
 satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls moving about a
 mean center of circulation, with the deep convection being confined
 to the southwestern semicircle due to northeasterly shear. Both
 subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates indicate that
 the system intensity remains 30 kt.
 
 Since the exact center is somewhat difficult to locate, the initial
 motion is a rather uncertain 345/08kt. There has been a slight
 westward shift in the majority of the track guidance, and this is
 possibly due to them steering a weaker system than previously
 forecast. The depression is expected to continue to move
 north-northwest for the next 24-36 hours between a weak mid-level
 trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its
 northeast. After 36 hours, the system should make a gradual
 turn toward the west-northwest as the cyclone weakens and becomes
 carried by the low-level steering currents.
 
 There is a shrinking window of opportunity for the depression to get
 its act together before it moves over SSTs below 26 C and into a
 stable atmospheric environment in 24-36 hours. Additionally, the 15
 to 20 kt of shear currently over the system may prevent it from
 intensifying any further. However, the official forecast calls for
 the depression to intensify slightly over marginal SSTs into a
 weak tropical storm tonight, followed by a weakening trend beginning
 in about 24 hours. The cyclone should weaken into a remnant low by
 48 hours and then dissipate late this week. The intensity forecast
 through 24 hours remains the same as the previous advisory, but
 it has been lowered beyond 24 hours and is in agreement with the
 majority of the intensity guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/2100Z 16.7N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/0600Z 17.8N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  23/1800Z 19.1N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  24/0600Z 20.2N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  24/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  25/1800Z 22.1N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Latto/Pasch