468 
 WTPA41 PHFO 200840
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032013
 1100 PM HST MON AUG 19 2013
  
 A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...EMERGED JUST SOUTHWEST OF 
 DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 0500 UTC...LIKELY INCREASING FIX POSITION 
 CONFIDENCE FOR THREE-C VERSUS EARLIER TODAY. DEEP CONVECTION 
 CONTINUES TO SPUTTER 45 TO 90 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC...KEEPING 
 DVORAK INTENSITIES FROM THE THREE CONTRIBUTING AGENCIES IN THE 25 TO 
 30 KT RANGE. NO RECENT ASCAT OR OSCAT PASSES ARE AVAILABLE. 
 THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS RATHER SMALL 
 SYSTEM AT 30 KT.  
  
 DEPRESSION THREE-C IS MOVING TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT...THE SAME 
 SPEED AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO 
 MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THREE-C IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN 
 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH PUTS IT WITHIN HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES AND 
 CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE 0600 UTC...8 PM HST...CIMSS 
 ANALYSIS SHOWED ONLY 16 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE WEST...LESS THAN THE 20 
 TO 30 KT OF SHEAR NOTED EARLIER. SHIPS DIFFERS A BIT AND INITIALIZES 
 23 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THREE-C. EITHER WAY...A LOW SHEAR 
 ENVIRONMENT NEEDED FOR LONG-TERM SYSTEM SURVIVAL IS NOT PRESENT AND 
 IS NOT ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE 
 PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM PEWA...WEST OF THE DATE LINE...MAY ALSO 
 TAKE A TOLL ON DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN NO DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN THE 
 ORGANIZATION OF THREE-C DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE INTENSITY 
 FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS 
 PACKAGE AND PROJECTS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AT AROUND 36 HOURS 
 AND THEN DISSIPATION. THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT 
 OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY 
 MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE 0000 UTC. HOWEVER...THIS TRACK REMAINS 
 WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  20/0900Z 19.0N 177.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  20/1800Z 19.3N 179.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  21/0600Z 19.9N 177.4E   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  21/1800Z 20.7N 174.7E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL