953 
 WTPA41 PHFO 210855
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015
  
 FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED
 EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 CONTINUED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...REMOVED FROM THE DEEP
 CONVECTION BY ABOUT 150 MILES. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
 DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY
 PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
 /LLCC/...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FOLLOW THE ASSUMPTION MADE IN
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THAT A DIFFERENT LLCC EXISTS...OR WILL SOON
 DEVELOP...CLOSER TO THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
 GENERALLY WESTWARD. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE CYCLONE IS NOT WELL
 ORGANIZED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE
 HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ANALYZED POSITION OF THE LLCC...RANGE FROM
 1.0/25 KT TO 2.5/35 KT. WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
 NOTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
 ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A SOMEWHAT
 UNCERTAIN 300/13 KT. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POSITION OF
 THE LLCC...THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS AS PRESENTED
 PREVIOUSLY. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT
 TERM...WITH THREE-C MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
 STEERED BY WESTWARD-BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
 UPDATED FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS...AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL
 POSITION. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON DAYS 4
 AND 5...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD
 MOTION...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL 
 MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS TURN...WITH THE 
 HWRF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF ONCE 
 AGAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE LONGER IT TAKES FOR THIS BREAK TO 
 DEVELOP...THE FARTHER WEST THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE 
 TURNING...AND THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CONTAIN A 
 SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST POSITIONS ON DAY 4 
 AND 5 LIE CLOSE TO THE HWRF GUIDANCE...AND A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE 
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LATEST ECMWF 
 GUIDANCE...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TVCN CONSENSUS.
  
 THREE-C IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...ABOVE 29C IN THE LATEST
 ANALYSIS...AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM RAMMB-CIRA
 INDICATES INCREASING VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EASTERLY SHEAR
 ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...BUT
 IT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN
 REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH DAY 3. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE
 DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN...BUT LATEST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
 WHILE THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...
 THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SLOWED...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND
 OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. 
 
 U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS ARE IN THE
 PROCESS OF DEPLOYING TO HAWAII AND A WC-130J IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN
 INITIAL PASS THROUGH THREE-C FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE
 VALUABLE DATA TO HELP BETTER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
 CENTER AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE WIND FIELD.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 12.3N 151.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 13.0N 153.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 13.9N 156.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  22/1800Z 15.0N 159.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  23/0600Z 16.0N 161.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  24/0600Z 18.0N 163.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  25/0600Z 19.5N 162.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  26/0600Z 21.0N 161.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD