982 
 WTNT45 KNHC 252059
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011
 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
 CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED.  THE CURVED
 BANDS FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE MORPHED INTO A
 BURSTING PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF A SHEARED CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL
 WINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
 COULD PREVENT STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE SHORT-TERM
 ALONG WITH THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
 SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY IS ON FRIDAY WITH GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A
 DECREASE IN SHEAR WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. 
 HOWEVER...THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
 SHORT-LIVED AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 48
 HOURS IN ADDITION TO THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS. 
 THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND TURNED TO THE RIGHT...
 WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/8.  THIS TURN IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. 
 THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
 DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THIS WEAKNESS.  A LEFTWARD TURN IS
 ANTICIPATED AFTER 3 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS AND BECOMES MORE
 STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
 LARGE SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
 LINKED TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
 EXPECTED TO GAIN MUCH STRENGTH...THE FORECAST LIES NEAR OR LEFT OF
 THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
 IN THE LONG RANGE. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/2100Z 13.8N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  26/0600Z 14.4N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  26/1800Z 15.2N  34.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  27/0600Z 16.0N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  27/1800Z 16.9N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  28/1800Z 19.0N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  29/1800Z 20.5N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  30/1800Z 21.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
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