336 
 WTNT45 KNHC 140252
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
  
 THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT FROM 925 MB...WHICH DOES NOT
 SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE WERE SFMR WINDS OF
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT IN RAINY CONDITIONS THIS WIND SPEED
 RANGE IS NOT WHERE THE INSTRUMENT PERFORMS BEST.  THE CENTER OF
 CIRCULATION IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
 WESTERLY SHEAR STILL EVIDENT IN INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
 THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN IN WHAT SHOULD BE A
 MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFDL
 AND HWRF BOTH MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE
 CARIBBEAN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  
 
 THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEPRESSION
 IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  A LARGE UPPER-LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
 IS DRIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS
 EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN
 ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS.  COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS
 SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE
 WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW.  A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW
 SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS
 IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.  THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH
 SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY
 ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0300Z 14.6N  69.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     14/1200Z 14.8N  69.2W    40 KT
  24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N  68.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N  67.4W    50 KT
  48HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N  66.0W    55 KT
  72HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N  63.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N  60.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  58.0W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN