820 
 WTNT43 KNHC 100250
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT MOVES
 THROUGH THE TYPICALLY UNFAVORABLE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  WHILE BANDING
 IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE ARE EARLIER TODAY...NEW CONVECTION IS
 FORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE
 SIGNATURE STILL APPEARS DISORGANIZED AS A NEW CENTER APPEARS TO BE
 FORMING FURTHER NORTH.  ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD
 AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 35 KT
 FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
 AND THE DEPRESSION IS WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
 HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
 INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION.  SLOW
 STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
 MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS. 
 
 MOTION CONTINUES AT A BRISK 285/20.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST
 REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD
 REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND STEER THE
 DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
 THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS
 BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE DEPTH OF THE
 STORM AND THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A
 LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  NOGAPS
 MAINTAINS A SHALLOW STORM AND TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE
 GFS AND GFDL DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM WHICH TURNS MORE NORTHWARD. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR
 AS THE GFDL OR GFS WHICH BOTH TAKE THE STORM OVER JAMAICA. 
  
 FORECASTER RHOME/LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0300Z 12.4N  64.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     10/1200Z 13.1N  66.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.2N  70.1W    35 KT
  36HR VT     11/1200Z 15.3N  73.4W    45 KT
  48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.4N  76.2W    50 KT
  72HR VT     13/0000Z 18.5N  80.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     14/0000Z 20.8N  83.3W    65 KT
 120HR VT     15/0000Z 24.0N  86.0W    70 KT
  
  
 $$