671
FOPZ15 KNHC 212046
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 10(10) 36(46) 21(67) 1(68) X(68)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) X(30) X(30)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 38(46) 6(52) 1(53)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) X(22)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 136N 1046W 34 90 4(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
12 136N 1046W 50 13 17(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
12 136N 1046W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
24 147N 1066W 34 13 73(86) 6(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93)
24 147N 1066W 50 X 36(36) 13(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
24 147N 1066W 64 X 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
36 159N 1087W 34 X 23(23) 52(75) 11(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88)
36 159N 1087W 50 X 2( 2) 33(35) 12(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49)
36 159N 1087W 64 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
48 173N 1109W 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 42(65) 14(79) 1(80) X(80)
48 173N 1109W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 12(41) X(41) X(41)
48 173N 1109W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17)
72 200N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 12(58) 1(59)
72 200N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) 1(25)
72 200N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11)
96 220N 1185W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 3(34)
96 220N 1185W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11)
96 220N 1185W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
120 240N 1220W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12)
120 240N 1220W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
120 240N 1220W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45 60 70 80 85 75 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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