820 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 121445
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011
 800 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
  
 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
 CONVECTION...WITH SEVERAL NEW CLUSTERS RECENTLY FORMING NEAR THE
 CENTER. THE MEXICAN RADAR FROM MOZOTAL DEPICTS A CURLY CUE-SHAPED
 CONVECTIVE ELEMENT ROTATING AROUND A BROADER CIRCULATION...WITH A
 COUPLE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE
 CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE LAST
 ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE
 DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER OF THE EASTERN
 PACIFIC BASIN...IT HAS LIMITED TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING
 INLAND. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE DEPRESSION POSSESSES A LOW-LEVEL
 STRUCTURE CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
 THE STRONGEST WINDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS
 THAT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY BEFORE REACHING THE
 COAST. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST WITHIN 48 HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES
 OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
 GUATEMALA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
 AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THERE COULD BE SOME SHORT-
 TERM WOBBLES OF THE TRACK IF THE CENTER REFORMS OR DUE TO
 TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. OUTSIDE OF THOSE VARIATIONS...THE DEPRESSION
 IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
 A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN. A WESTERLY
 STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
 SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS FORECAST
 TO CARRY THE CYCLONE ON A NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD COURSE
 AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
 OFFICIAL TRACK WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND CLOSE
 TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
 PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...EVEN AFTER THE
 SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
 THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/1500Z 15.1N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z 15.6N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  24H  13/1200Z 15.9N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  14/0000Z 15.9N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN