352 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 112032
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007
 200 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2007
  
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS OVERALL
 HAVE WARMED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS
 EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE. 1800
 UTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.0 OR
 30 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT
 30 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING A VERY STABLE
 ENVIRONMENT...A SHORT 12-24 HOUR WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
 REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE SSTS FALL BELOW 25 DEGREES
 CELSIUS.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE LGE...LOGISTIC
 GROWTH EQUATION...VERSION OF THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS VERSION MORE
 CLOSELY SIMULATES THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENT THAN THE STANDARD
 VERSION OF SHIPS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
 POSITIONED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS INFLUENCING THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION.  ONCE THE
 TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
 NORTH AND TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...EXCEPT A BIT
 FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.   
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/2100Z 16.3N 111.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 112.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.6N 114.0W    30 KT
  36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 114.9W    30 KT
  48HR VT     13/1800Z 18.2N 116.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI