800 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 022050
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014
 
 Satellite images suggest that Norbert has become a little better
 organized during the day since the center is no longer partially
 exposed and banding features have become somewhat better defined.
 Intensity estimates, however, are about the same as 6 hours ago, so
 the wind speed is kept at 35 kt.  Except for moderate northeasterly
 shear, environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening
 for the next couple of days.  Intensity guidance is a bit higher
 than 6 hours ago, with the HWRF now calling for Norbert to become a
 hurricane.  The new NHC forecast will follow the trend of the
 guidance and shows a higher peak intensity than the last one,
 between the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.
 
 Norbert has turned northward and has slowed, with an initial motion
 of about 360/8. The leftward turn should continue overnight, with a
 west-northwestward track expected in about 24 hours as Norbert comes
 under the influence of a mid-level high over Mexico. This high
 weakens somewhat in a couple of days, which could then force Norbert
 on a more northwestward track.  While the bulk of the guidance still
 shows the center of Norbert passing south of the Baja California
 peninsula, there has been a northward trend noted in much of the
 guidance.  The NHC forecast is adjusted to the north and now lies
 north of the model consensus, but is still south of the latest ECMWF
 forecast.
 
 The new NHC track forecast suggests an increasing chance of
 tropical-storm-force winds in southern Baja California Sur, and a
 tropical storm watch has been issued for the extreme southern part
 of the state.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/2100Z 18.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  03/0600Z 19.4N 107.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  04/0600Z 20.5N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  04/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  05/1800Z 22.6N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  06/1800Z 23.6N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  07/1800Z 24.0N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake