840 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 232031
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008
 
 STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO PULSE WEST OF THE CENTER...WHICH
 REMAINS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
 QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 1300 UTC SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST
 30 KT.  SINCE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE STILL BELOW TROPICAL
 STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT...BUT
 THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN
 THE FORECAST AS THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND
 SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER... A
 COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS...MORE STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING
 WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE OF THE MORE BULLISH STATISTICAL
 GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
 315/10...THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT
 ESTIMATE.  A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO
 STEERING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
 OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH
 IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE MODELS ARE NOT
 IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION BEYOND A DAY OR
 TWO WITH THE GFDL/HWRF MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE
 NOGAPS/GFS.  I'M INCLINED TO TO LEAN ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE
 GUIDANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE INITIAL FORWARD MOTION AND THE LIMITED
 WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET MODEL.   
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/2100Z 19.5N 108.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     24/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W    40 KT
  24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.7N 110.4W    45 KT
  36HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 111.5W    45 KT
  48HR VT     25/1800Z 24.5N 112.3W    40 KT
  72HR VT     26/1800Z 27.0N 113.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     27/1800Z 29.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA