667 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 270251
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
 900 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
 
 The cloud pattern of the depression has improved significantly
 since the previous advisory with the establishment of a
 well-defined outflow pattern and several curved convective banding
 features. However, the inner-core convection is rather paltry and
 limited at this time, and that is the main reason why the system is
 still a depression despite is otherwise impressive satellite
 appearance. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak
 satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.
 
 The initial motion estimate of 285/15 kt is based on recent
 microwave satellite fixes. There is no significant change to the
 previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone is expected to
 remain south of a deep-layer ridge located over northern Mexico and
 the adjacent Pacific Ocean, and move generally westward along the
 southern periphery of the ridge for the next 3-4 days. By 96-120
 hours, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a
 mid-latitude trough drops southward, forcing the cyclone to move on
 a slower west-northwestward track. The NHC track guidance remains in
 good agreement on this developing scenario, and the official
 forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and follows the
 consensus models GFEX and TVCE.
 
 The environment ahead of the depression is expected to be quite
 favorable for strengthening for the next 5 days or so due to low
 vertical wind shear, SSTs greater than 29 deg C, and moist
 mid-level air. Both the SHIPS and LGEM models remain fairly
 aggressive by making the cyclone to category 3 or 4 hurricane,
 respectively, by days 4 and 5. Given these favorable conditions and
 the recent improvement in the depression's structure, the official
 intensity forecast has been nudged upward from the previous
 advisory, and follows the IVCN consensus model through 96 hours,
 and uses a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models at 120 hours.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0300Z 11.7N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  27/1200Z 12.1N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  28/0000Z 12.5N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  28/1200Z 12.7N 121.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  29/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  30/0000Z 13.0N 127.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  31/0000Z 13.9N 131.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 120H  01/0000Z 15.5N 134.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart