741 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 060843
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER
 ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
 RE-FORMING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  HOWEVER...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A
 BLEND OF SATELLITE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600
 UTC OF 25 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0436
 UTC THAT SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 25-30 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 290/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
 OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO
 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING
 THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. BEYOND 72 HOURS
 ...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED
 BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
 THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THIS PATTERN WOULD USUALLY FAVOR A
 NORTHWARD TURN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW BY THAT TIME
 AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE
 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE
 IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD
 IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND THE
 ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
 INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
 THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE THROUGH 72
 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
 AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/0900Z 16.3N 103.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 104.5W    40 KT
  24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.3N 106.2W    50 KT
  36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W    55 KT
  48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.7N 109.3W    55 KT
  72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 111.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     11/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI