074 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 302046
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
 200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014
 
 Satellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern
 associated with Elida has changed little, with the main convection
 displaced in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation due to
 moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. Despite the
 rather disheveled looking cloud appearance, two ASCAT passes at
 1606 UTC and 1700 UTC indicated that Elida still possessed a
 well-defined circulation center and 45-kt winds in the southeastern
 quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at
 45 kt for this advisory.
 
 The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/03 kt. The
 aforementioned ASCAT wind data indicate that Elida has slowed down
 considerably during the past 6 hours. Most of the reliable models
 have been predicting that a sharp decrease in the forward speed
 would occur in previous model runs, so the official forecast has
 followed this scenario for the next 48 hours since Elida now appears
 to be caught in a break in the east-west oriented subtropical ridge
 located across south-central Mexico. It is possible that Elida
 could even stall and move erratically, but the cyclone and its
 strongest winds are expected to remain offshore of the coast of
 Mexico during the next 2 days. After that, the subtropical ridge is
 forecast to rebuild to the north of the cyclone, which should induce
 a westward motion at a faster forward speed away from Mexico. The
 official track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory
 track, and is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.
 
 Moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected
 to affect the cyclone for at least the next 3 days, which should
 prevent any significant intensification from occurring despite the
 very warm sea-surface temperatures and moist mid-level environment
 surrounding the storm. By days 4 and 5, however, the shear is
 forecast to decrease significantly, which should allow for some
 strengthening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
 to the multi-model consensus IVCN for the next 72 hours, and then
 follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance after that.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/2100Z 17.4N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart