841 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 280232
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER
 THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM HAS A LONG CONVECTIVE BAND THAT
 STRETCHES INTO THE ITCZ...GIVING A RATHER ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE TO
 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
 DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH AND IT COULD BE NAMED ON THE
 NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
 LIKELY TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM
 MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE
 EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD NOTED AHEAD OF THREE-E.  THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN
 EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS...
 ICON.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 300/8.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED
 TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT
 WITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
 NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS
 INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALBEIT JUST A TAD SLOWER.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE
 TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 FOR NOW...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THREE-E AND BORIS WILL REMAIN FAR
 ENOUGH APART SO AS TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN
 THEIR CIRCULATIONS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/0300Z 14.2N 123.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     28/1200Z 14.5N 124.9W    35 KT
  24HR VT     29/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W    35 KT
  36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.8N 128.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     30/0000Z 14.9N 129.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     01/0000Z 15.0N 133.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     02/0000Z 15.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH