110 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 072035
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
 200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2011
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
 BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW LOCATED NEAR
 OR UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
 EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH...WEST...AND NORTH. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
 SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THE
 RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
 BE APPROACHING  TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR A
 LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER T-NUMBERS TO UPGRADE THE
 SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN
 SOME BEFORE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD WATER SOUTH OF
 BAJA CALIFORNIA.    
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING
 A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT INDICATED BY THE
 GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR...THE LATEST CONSENSUS SHOWS A MORE NORTHWEST 
 TRACK IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
 WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW OVER COLD WATERS BY
 THEN...AND MOST LIKELY WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/2100Z 15.4N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z 16.0N 104.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  08/1800Z 16.8N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  09/0600Z 17.5N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  09/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  10/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  11/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA