881 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 060832
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018
 
 Deep convection has increased significantly during the past 12
 hours, and the cloud pattern is better organized with the formation
 of a few cyclonically curved bands. The outflow is fair in all
 quadrants. An ASCAT pass a few hours ago, indicate that the winds
 are between 35 to 40 kt, but these winds are confined to a band to
 the east of the center.  On this basis, the depression has been
 upgraded to Tropical Storm Aletta, the first named system of the
 2018 eastern North Pacific season.
 
 An prevailing environment of low shear favors intensification, and
 although the Rapid Intensification Indices are not as high as
 earlier, they are still on the high side. The NHC forecast calls for
 Aletta to become a hurricane in 36 hours as indicated in the
 previous forecast. After 3 days, when the cyclone reaches cooler
 water and higher shear, a gradual weakening is anticipated.
 
 It appears that Aletta is moving toward the west at about 6 kt
 around the periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over
 northwestern Mexico. However, a weakness in the ridge should cause
 the cyclone to gradually gain some latitude during the next few days
 with no significant change in forward speed. The NHC forecast
 follows the model consensus, and it is basically centered in the
 middle of the guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north
 and the ECMWF to the south.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0900Z 14.1N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  06/1800Z 14.2N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  07/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  07/1800Z 14.6N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  08/0600Z 15.0N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  10/0600Z 16.5N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  11/0600Z 17.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila