874 
 WTPA41 PHFO 072101
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM
 PALI.
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
 OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
 FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM JTWC AND SAB TO 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO. BASED ON
 THE IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN
 SSMIS PASS AT 1733 UTC.
 
 FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 SHOWING PALI TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF
 PALI AND THE STORM WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
 THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
 WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE MODELS SPLIT AT THAT POINT
 WITH SOME SHOWING PALI VEERING NORTH THEN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND
 MOST SHOWING THE SYSTEM CURVING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHEAST.
 I HAVE FOLLOWED THE LATTER GROUP OF MODELS. IN EITHER CASE FORWARD
 MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE SLOW AFTER 24 HOURS. 
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...
 ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL DAYS 4 AND 5. DESPITE
 THE SEASON...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
 IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
 LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE
 DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT IN WHICH THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/2100Z  4.7N 171.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z  5.7N 171.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  08/1800Z  6.8N 172.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  09/0600Z  7.3N 173.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  09/1800Z  7.3N 173.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  10/1800Z  7.2N 173.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  11/1800Z  7.0N 173.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  12/1800Z  6.8N 173.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON