273 
 WTPA41 PHFO 070838
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
 1100 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008
 
 CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER AND THE
 CONSENSUS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB CAME IN
 AT 2.5...OR 35 KT.  AS A RESULT...ONE-C HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
 TROPICAL STORM KIKA.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER SMALL AND THE
 PRIMARY QUIKSCAT SOLUTION FROM 0400 UTC DOES NOT DEPICT A CLOSED
 CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...AMBIGUITY DATA INDICATE POSSIBLE WESTERLIES
 TO CLOSE OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER.  SSMI AND GOES DATA CERTAINLY
 SUPPORT A CLOSED CIRCULATION. 
 
 KIKA IS MOVING WITHIN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A 
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
 AND SHOW A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN A
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR
 170W.  THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
 IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 AS FOR INTENSITY...CIMSS SHEAR DATA SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY
 SHEAR IMPINGING UPON KIKA.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN RECENT IR IMAGES
 WHICH SHOW A RESTRICTED OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
 MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0248 AND 0340 UTC ALSO SUGGEST A TILTING OF
 CENTER WITH HEIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR MAY HINDER
 ANY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT DESPITE ADEQUATE SST VALUES OF 27C.  THE
 TRACK KEEPS KIKA NEAR 27C WATER THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN INTO MARGINAL
 SST CONDITIONS THROUGH 96 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SST VALUES ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK INCREASE BEYOND 96 HOURS...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
 INCREASE AND HINDER INTENSIFICATION.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
 SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 24 HOURS
 BUT GENERALLY CONSISTENT BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0900Z 10.4N 147.8W    35 KT
  12HR VT     07/1800Z 10.5N 149.5W    40 KT
  24HR VT     08/0600Z 10.8N 152.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     08/1800Z 11.0N 154.4W    45 KT
  48HR VT     09/0600Z 11.2N 157.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     10/0600Z 12.1N 162.4W    45 KT
  96HR VT     11/0600Z 13.3N 167.6W    45 KT
 120HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N 172.5W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA